The future is not a fixed point. It is ours to create.

Forecasting the Future of K-12 Teaching: Four Scenarios for a Decade of Disruption examines how the disruptive changes shaping education might affect teaching in the next ten years. The crisis point that the education system faces is not one of teacher or school performance. It is one of system design. Teachers play a crucial role in young people’s lives. As we face dramatic changes to the fundamental structures of education, we need to be intentional about how we design for adults’ roles in supporting learning. To help education stakeholders around the country create positive futures for the teaching profession, this paper presents four scenarios for the future of K-12 teaching in the United States.

Exploring plausible futures

To help education stakeholders around the country explore such questions, this paper presents four scenarios for the future of K-12 teaching in the United States:

• A baseline future, “A Plastic Profession,” extrapolates from today’s dominant reality to project what teaching is likely to look like in ten years if we do not alleviate current stressors on the profession and do not make significant changes to the structure of today’s public education system
• An alternative future, “Take Back the Classroom,” explores what teaching might look like if public educators reclaim the learning agenda by helping to shape the regulatory climate to support their visions for teaching and learning
• A second alternative future, “A Supplemental Profession,” examines what teaching might look like if today’s public education system does not change significantly but professionals from other organizational contexts become increasingly involved in supporting young people in engaging in authentic and relevant learning opportunities outside of school
• An ideal future, “Diverse Learning Agent Roles,” explores how a diverse set of learning agent roles and activities might support rich, relevant and authentic learning in an expanded and highly personalized learning ecosystem that is vibrant for all learners

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